Natural selection and the predictability of evolution in Timema stick insects
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| Authors: | Nosil, P; Villoutreix, R; de Carvalho, CF; Farkas, TE; Soria-Carrasco, V; Feder, JL; Crespi, BJ; Gompert, Z |
| Year: | 2018 |
| Journal: | Science 359: 765-770 Article Link (DOI) PubMed |
| Title: | Natural selection and the predictability of evolution in Timema stick insects |
| Abstract: | Predicting evolution remains difficult. We studied the evolution of cryptic body coloration and pattern in a stick insect using 25 years of field data, experiments, and genomics. We found that evolution is more difficult to predict when it involves a balance between multiple selective factors and uncertainty in environmental conditions than when it involves feedback loops that cause consistent back-and-forth fluctuations. Specifically, changes in color-morph frequencies are modestly predictable through time (r(2) = 0.14) and driven by complex selective regimes and yearly fluctuations in climate. In contrast, temporal changes in pattern-morph frequencies are highly predictable due to negative frequency-dependent selection (r(2) = 0.86). For both traits, however, natural selection drives evolution around a dynamic equilibrium, providing some predictability to the process. |
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