Trade-offs for data-limited fisheries when using harvest strategies based on catch-only models
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| Authors: | Walsh, JC; Minto, C; Jardim, E; Anderson, SC; Jensen, OP; Afflerbach, J; Dickey-Collas, M; Kleisner, KM; Longo, C; Osio, GC; Selig, ER; Thorson, JT; Rudd, MB; Papacostas, KJ; Kittinger, JN; Rosenberg, AA; Cooper, AB |
| Year: | 2018 |
| Journal: | Fish. Fish. 19 Article Link (DOI) |
| Title: | Trade-offs for data-limited fisheries when using harvest strategies based on catch-only models |
| Abstract: | Many of the world's fisheries are unassessed, with little information about population status or risk of overfishing. Unassessed fisheries are particularly predominant in developing countries and in small-scale fisheries, where they are important for food security. Several catch-only methods based on time series of fishery catch and commonly available life-history traits have been developed to estimate stock status (defined as biomass relative to biomass at maximum sustainable yield: B/B-MSY). While their stock status performance has been extensively studied, performance of catch-only models as a management tool is unknown. We evaluated the extent to which a superensemble of three prominent catch-only models can provide a reliable basis for fisheries management and how performance compares across management strategies that control catch or fishing effort. We used a management strategy evaluation framework to determine whether a superensemble of catch-only models can reliably inform harvest control rules (HCRs). Across five simulated fish life histories and two harvest-dynamic types, catch-only models and HCR combinations reduced the risk of overfishing and increased the proportion of stocks above B-MSY compared to business as usual, though often resulted in poor yields. Precautionary HCRs based on fishing effort were robust and insensitive to error in catch-only models, while catch-based HCRs caused high probabilities of overfishing and more overfished populations. Catch-only methods tended to overestimate B/B-MSY for our simulated data sets. The catch-only superensemble combined with precautionary effort-based HCRs could be part of a stepping stone approach for managing some data-limited stocks while working towards more data-moderate assessment methods. |
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