Simulated response of groundwater to predicted recharge in a semi-arid region using a scenario of modelled climate change
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| Authors: | Toews, MW; Allen, DM |
| Year: | 2009 |
| Journal: | Environ. Res. Lett. 4 Article Link (DOI) |
| Title: | Simulated response of groundwater to predicted recharge in a semi-arid region using a scenario of modelled climate change |
| Abstract: | Groundwater systems in arid regions will be particularly sensitive to climate change owing to the strong dependence of rates of evapotranspiration on temperature, and shifts in the precipitation regimes. In agricultural areas, such changes in climate may require increased irrigation, putting stress on existing water supplies. In this study, a regional-scale numerical groundwater model was developed for the Oliver region of the south Okanagan, British Columbia, Canada, to simulate the impacts of future predicted climate change on groundwater. In future time periods (the 2050s and 2080s), the most noticeable change in the water budget is the increased contribution of recharge to the annual water budget, estimated at 1.2% (2050s) and 1.4% (2080s) of the total annual budget relative to the current conditions. This increase is related primarily to increases to irrigation return flow resulting from higher irrigation needs under warmer temperatures and a longer growing season. Increases in recharge and irrigation return flow will result in higher water tables with future climate conditions, particularly in the irrigation districts. Median value increases in groundwater level of up to 0.7 m by the 2080s are estimated. |
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